4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.06 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model