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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to PIT 08, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.75 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model