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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 76

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to BUF 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie ran ob at BUF 27 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model