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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:26) (Punt formation) 82-L.Thomas pass short right to 16-R.Foster to NYJ 38 for 15 yards (17-C.Peake).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP
KICK -2.18 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model