Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 62

New York Jets 10 – Buffalo Bills 41

(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete short middle to 40-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.49 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -2.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model