Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 61

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 31

(13:03) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 17 for 2 yards (56-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model