4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at BUF 36 for 21 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP