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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model