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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 12-M.Sanu. 25-I.Smith right guard to CLE 37 for 4 yards (54-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.16 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 41, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model