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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at CLE 37 for -5 yards (50-C.Smith). FUMBLES (50-C.Smith) [50-C.Smith], touched at CLE 45, RECOVERED by CLE-51-J.Collins at CLE 49. 51-J.Collins to CLE 49 for no gain (70-J.Matthews).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.20 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model