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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 48

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 36 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model