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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(9:08) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 38 yards to CLE 8, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model