Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 90

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(8:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to TEN 46, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 25-A.Jackson to DAL 49 for 5 yards (49-J.Olawale). PENALTY on TEN-44-K.Correa, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 46. Penalty on TEN-56-S.Finch, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.53 EP
73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model