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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 57

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to CAR 12, Center-89-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 18-D.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.58 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP