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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 42 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to TB 39, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-18-D.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model