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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 38

Carolina Panthers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 17-D.Funchess to TB 36 for 2 yards (33-C.Davis III). PENALTY on TB-33-C.Davis III, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.23 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model