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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries to TB 29 for 8 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model