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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 35

What Actually Happened

(:19) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.79 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model