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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to TB 20, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.76 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP