Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 28

(6:33) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger pass incomplete short right to 45-A.Cross (55-D.Mayo) [53-B.Jacobs].

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model