4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-B.Anger punts 40 yards to CAR 32, Center-89-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model