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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 80

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 39 for 19 yards (45-R.Miles; 58-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.14 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.44 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -2.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP