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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NYJ 12, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.25 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model