Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 58

New York Jets 6 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(2:22) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right intended for 81-Q.Enunwa INTERCEPTED by 22-T.McDonald at MIA 40. 22-T.McDonald to 50 for 10 yards (11-R.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.36 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP