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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 38

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.46 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP