Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 79

New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

(5:29) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to MIA 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant to MIA 41 for 6 yards (17-C.Peake; 42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.81 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model