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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 6 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 58 yards to NYJ 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (27-K.Ballage).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 28, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model