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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 30

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Field Goal formation) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model