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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.41 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP