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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short left to 32-K.Drake ran ob at NYJ 31 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.53 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model