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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 52

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.77 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model