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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 81

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(7:20) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to MIA 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.93 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model