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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Punt formation) 4-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to MIA 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 27 for 12 yards (83-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model