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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 35 – New Orleans Saints 45

What Actually Happened

(3:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 12-B.Cooks (26-P.Williams) [56-D.Davis].

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.09 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model