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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill scrambles left end to LA 28 for 9 yards (20-L.Joyner).

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.94 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model