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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 33

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 4-G.Zuerlein 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model