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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.05 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model