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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 37 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to CLE 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. Penalty on CLE-18-D.Ratley, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.40 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -0.86 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model