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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 21

Kansas City Chiefs 34 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model