4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(8:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson ran ob at KC 20 for 23 yards (21-E.Murray).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.23 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 43, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model