4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 19

Houston Texans 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 28-A.Blue up the middle to DEN 20 for -1 yards (55-B.Chubb).

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model