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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 26

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model