Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 55

Denver Broncos 17 – Houston Texans 19

(:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep middle to 10-E.Sanders to HOU 37 for 18 yards (20-J.Reid) [59-W.Mercilus].

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.29 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -1.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EP