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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 19

Houston Texans 16 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 7-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.36 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 19, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 29, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model