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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 70

Houston Texans 16 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 8-T.Daniel punts 48 yards to DEN 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 19 for -3 yards (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP