Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 62

Houston Texans 13 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-T.Daniel punts 52 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 24-A.Jones to DEN 10 for no gain (49-J.Keyes). PENALTY on DEN-38-S.Thomas, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model