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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 61

Houston Texans 13 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 13 for 5 yards (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP