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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to HOU 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP