Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 66

New England Patriots 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

(3:39) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to GB 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model