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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 48

Green Bay Packers 17 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(3:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling [94-A.Clayborn].

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model